Economic modelling warns that the carbon tax could force eight black coalmines to close, costing nearly 3000 jobs in regional NSW and more than 1100 jobs in Queensland in its first three years.

Independent modelling commissioned by the Australian Coal Association warns that the number of early mine closures could reach 18 within nine years and result in Australia forgoing coal sales of $22 billion from existing mines over the next decade. The ACIL Tasman modelling projects that carbon pricing could greatly reduce the expected boost to the economy from the resources boom as potential mines do not go ahead. ACIL Tasman estimates that between 22,700 and 31,020 man-years of jobs will be forgone as a result of new projects not proceeding and between $23bn and $45bn in export earnings will be forgone in the decade to 2021-22.

"Conservative estimates of employment losses from applying emissions pricing to potential new coalmining developments would be elimination of 25-37% of potential new jobs," the modelling report says. The modelling of the black coal industry comes as the coal union steps up pressure on the government's multi-party climate change committee to agree to a compensation package at least matching the $1.5bn in assistance promised to "gassy mines" as part of Kevin Rudd's carbon pollution reduction scheme.

Australian Coal Association executive director Ralph Hillman said the ACIL Tasman modelling clearly showed coalmines could close if the government persisted with its plans for a carbon tax. He called for two changes to the scheme, which he said could avoid mine closures and job losses: that the government introduce a carbon price by phased-in auctioning of permits at a sufficiently low level to maintain the competitiveness of the sector; and that a carbon tax should be applied to fugitive emissions from coalmines (greenhouse gases released in the mining process) only when Australia's major competitors did so. A spokesman for Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said the government recognises the coal industry is a vital part of the Australian economy and that the vast majority of Australia's coalmining industry is not emissions-intensive and will not face materially increased costs under a carbon price.